Friday, December 27, 2013

Not So Hot At 45

Students put AccuWeather long-range forecasts to the test: "Though these results are based on a limited dataset that spanned only one season (essentially, meteorological autumn) and only maximum temperatures were considered, they are remarkably consistent with the experience of seasoned mid-latitude forecasters: Beyond about 10 days, climatology (on average) is as good as, if not better than, any deterministic forecast."
Basically the same question occurred to me a number of months back when Accuweather announced their 45 day forecasts. So I took a look at my town:
UUUGLYYY! I couldn't stop laughing long enough to do a more rigorous analysis!

But don't worry your pretty head now, their 100 year forecasts are worth betting trillions on!  (H/T Joel at OpenSnow)